The UK’s
political system embodies the ideal type of republican democracy in many ways
and the constitution – for something that was never put down on paper – has
provided a remarkable degree of stability. However, the far reaching changes ian
society and polity that were in evidence pre- and post-election must not be
ignored, not least for being instructive as far as what democracies around the
world, including India, can expect as they evolve.
Identities in
Politics
Group
affiliations and social identities play a strong role in electoral outcomes
even in mature democracies. True, the Labour party registered stunning loses
within its traditional Scottish base on this occasion. However, this is owing
to a perceptible shift in the determining group affiliation from class-based to
ethnic/ethno-nationalist. The Guardian’s prescription for Labour that is must
learn anew to reach out to the public “in a voice – and perhaps an accent –
that speaks to the individual ear” is telling in this regard.
Ideological
spectrum and policy options
Reputed scholars
of European politics, among them Tony Judt, have presaged the blurring of the
left-right divide which finds its genesis in the region and has long defined
electoral battle-lines. Judt describes this as “the disappearance of the old
master narratives (Socialism vs Capitalism); proletarians vs owners;
imperialists vs revolutionaries)”. Sworn allegiances are admittedly not
entirely a thing of the past but it appears that voters increasingly ask
themselves: “Who has the right answers on an issue that matters most to me?”,
rather than wholesale policy packages and ideological grandstanding. Much of
the pre-election public sentiment in the UK was one of chagrin over lack of
distinct and clearly articulated policy options anyway. In this situation,
voters seem to opt for continuity by default. In stark contrast, post-election
commentary has, for instance, taken Labour to task for not being Centrist
enough while the dismal Liberal Democrats’ performance at the polls has been
blamed on too much Centrism.
Another emerging
trend where this same phenomenon is clearly manifested is the varying fortunes
of the far-left and far-right. Thus, while the Eurosceptic UK Independence
Party fared well in the 2014 European Parliament elections, it only managed to
secure a single seat this time, suggesting, once again, issue-specific suffrage
at various levels.
The public’s
pro-continuity bias, leading to successive terms for the same administration
more or less, in the case of New Labour, was deemed by many to be a case of
going deeper in a certain direction – the wrong one. History will be the judge
of Cameroon and his cabinet’s successive stints in government. It is plausible
however, that the first term of any government would be spent in
course-correction and back-pedalling on perceived faux-pas. A second
opportunity to serve in office must be awaited to take any action aimed at
moving forward.
Secession and
Devolution
With different parties
and political agendas in power at different levels of government one thing seems
assured for mature democracies – devolve or perish! Less than a year after the
Scottish referendum on independence ended in a No vote, the pro-independence
Scottish Nationalist Party bagged 56 of 59 seats occupied by Scots in
Westminster. The SNP does not favour the austerity policies that have been at
the heart of the last Conservative government. Its MPs will no doubt push
Cameroon to deliver on the promise of greater financial autonomy and
decision-making authority for Scotland, within the Union. Moving forward, the
only options confronting mature democracies are likely to be a willingness to
loosen the central government’s stranglehold or be permanently riddled by
policy paralysis.
Brussels, Berlin
and Paris must now also be equally willing to negotiate afresh, a place for the
UK in the European Union. Although personally not in favour of pushing the exit
button, David Cameron must contend with Conservative Eurosceptics as well as
the likes of UKIP, whose poor showing at the polls will not deter them from
setting the terms of the debate. Whatever be the specifics of the deal that is
finally put to vote, this referendum would once again bring to fore thorny
issues of identity, immigration and economy and above all entail a
re-imagination of the place the UK seeks to occupy in the world and its
relationship with its European self and the European other.
The Rules of Ruling
The outcome of
this election has left pollsters somewhat baffled. All per-poll predictions
pointed to a neck-and-neck race between the two leading parties. At the very
least, nowhere near the kind of majority secured by the Tories was anticipated.
Some have attempted to save face by blaming the first-past-the-post system for
this surprising result. Reports suggest that underlying the Tory seat share of
above 51% is a much less impressive vote share of 37% of the 66% of eligible
voters who exercised the ballot. Others have sought redemptiaon by arguing for
improved forecasting models.
A promising
supplement to these approaches would be to follow the long-term evolution of
democracies and to more fully appreciate the nature of and links between
electoral strategies, voter behaviour and social consensus.
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